Strategy Isn’t What You Know—It’s What You Imagine Must Be True

When companies plan their futures, they often get stuck analyzing current data and trends. But in strategy, what counts is what would have to be true—not what is true. This subtle shift transforms strategy from a static report into a dynamic exploration of possibilities.

Start by framing your strategic challenge as a clear choice between mutually exclusive options. For example, should a company revamp an existing brand or acquire a new one? This framing energizes teams to focus on actionable futures.

Next, create detailed stories about how each option might succeed, specifying the conditions that must hold true. These are hypotheses to test, not assumptions to accept blindly. Identify barriers—conditions least likely to be met—and prioritize testing them.

This approach fosters open inquiry, suspending judgment early to encourage creativity. Skeptics become collaborators by articulating what evidence they’d need to support each option.

One team discovered their status quo was a weak option only after this process, enabling them to pivot confidently. This method prevents complacency and promotes bold, evidence-based decisions.

Strategy becomes less about predicting the future and more about exploring what futures are possible and preparing to act accordingly.

Up next: why imagination, not data alone, is the key to navigating business uncertainty.

Sources: 2 , 4