Forecasting the Future: How Data and History Can Save Your Project
Avoid optimism traps by learning from history and improving your project forecasts with proven techniques.
Imagine an analyst examining thousands of project records to find patterns that can predict your project's future. This is Reference-Class Forecasting (RCF), a technique that anchors estimates in the outcomes of comparable past projects.
Hofstadter’s Law famously states, 'It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.' This recursive truth underscores our chronic underestimation of project timelines.
RCF combats optimism bias and the planning fallacy by forcing planners to consider base rates—the actual performance of similar projects—rather than relying on rosy inside views.
Governments and organizations adopting RCF have seen improved forecasting accuracy, avoiding the trap of unrealistic expectations.
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