Why We’re All So Sure We’re Right: The Psychology Behind Unshakable Beliefs

Every day, we encounter people who seem impossible to persuade—family members, friends, or strangers on the internet who dig in their heels no matter how compelling the facts. But what if the real reason minds don’t change isn’t stubbornness or ignorance, but something much deeper and more universal? In How Minds Change, science journalist David McRaney reveals that the human mind is wired not for truth, but for survival and belonging. Our certainty is a feeling—an emotional state that masquerades as logic. This illusion of certainty is at the root of why we hold so tightly to our beliefs, even in the face of contradictory evidence.

Consider the now-famous viral debate over the color of a dress. Was it black and blue, or white and gold? Millions argued passionately, convinced their perception was reality. This wasn’t just a quirky internet moment—it was a window into how our brains construct reality using prior experiences and expectations. When information is ambiguous, the mind fills in the gaps, drawing on what it already knows. This process, called motivated reasoning, isn’t a sign of weakness, but an evolutionary adaptation. Our ancestors depended on group cohesion for survival, so our brains evolved to defend the beliefs that keep us connected to our tribe.

But this same adaptation can make changing minds extraordinarily difficult. When beliefs are challenged, our brains react as if under threat, triggering defensive reasoning. Facts alone rarely break through. Instead, belief change often requires a sense of safety, empathy, and sometimes a complete shift in social context. The key insight? Certainty is an emotion, not a logical conclusion. Recognizing this is the first step toward more compassionate, effective conversations.



Understanding the psychology of belief doesn’t just help us win arguments—it helps us build bridges. In the next section, we’ll explore how deep, empathetic conversations can gently open even the most closed minds, and why listening is often more powerful than speaking.

Sources: How Minds Change by David McRaney; The Guardian review; Next Big Idea Club summary