Why Crazy Ideas Win: The Secret Science Behind Loonshots

How the Wildest Ideas Shape the Future—and How You Can Nurture Them

Imagine a world where the greatest innovations—those that change how we live, work, and connect—begin not as celebrated projects, but as neglected, even ridiculed, ideas. This is the premise of Safi Bahcall’s groundbreaking book, 'Loonshots.' In this blog, we’ll journey through the hidden science of loonshots, revealing why organizations so often crush their most valuable ideas and how you can help them thrive.

Bahcall introduces the concept of the 'loonshot': a radical idea, project, or discovery that is initially overlooked or dismissed by mainstream organizations. Unlike 'moonshots,' which are ambitious but widely supported, loonshots are the underdogs—projects seen as too risky, too weird, or too impractical. Yet, history shows us that these are the very ideas that change the world: from the invention of radar to the development of statins, and from the birth of the internet to the rise of new business models.

Why do organizations, even those that claim to value innovation, so often reject loonshots? Bahcall draws on the science of phase transitions—how a small change in temperature can turn water into ice—to explain sudden shifts in group behavior. In small, close-knit teams, everyone’s stake in the outcome is high, and innovation flourishes. But as organizations grow, incentives shift. Perks of rank, politics, and risk aversion take over. Suddenly, the same group that once nurtured creativity now freezes into bureaucracy. This insight is more than metaphor—it’s a blueprint for designing organizations that balance the needs of both wild inventors and steady operators.

One of the most powerful lessons from 'Loonshots' is the importance of separating the two worlds within any organization: the artists (who dream up loonshots) and the soldiers (who execute and scale proven ideas). Both are essential, but they operate by different rules. The best leaders, Bahcall argues, are not just visionaries—they are gardeners. They design systems and incentives that allow both sides to flourish and ensure ideas can be transferred from the lab to the marketplace without being crushed.

Bahcall’s stories are filled with examples of loonshots that were killed multiple times before succeeding. The world’s most successful drugs, for instance, faced repeated rejection and 'false fails'—setbacks caused by flawed experiments rather than flawed ideas. Only through persistence, and the presence of champions willing to fight for them, did these ideas survive.

But loonshots aren’t just about products. Bahcall distinguishes between P-type (product) and S-type (strategy) loonshots. The former are radical new technologies; the latter are innovative business models or processes. Many organizations focus only on flashy new products, missing the subtle but equally disruptive power of strategic innovation.

The implications go beyond business. Bahcall shows how the 'Endless Frontier' policy after WWII, which fostered collaboration between government, academia, and industry, led to decades of breakthrough inventions. The lesson: societies, like organizations, must nurture both incremental improvements and bold leaps.

In conclusion, 'Loonshots' is a call to action for anyone who wants to shape the future. It’s not enough to have great ideas—you must also build the right environment for them to survive. By understanding the science of group behavior, designing thoughtful structures, and respecting the delicate balance between creativity and execution, you can help the next loonshot take flight.

Ready to spot and nurture your own loonshots? The future may depend on it. 1 2 3