Why the Post-Cold War Peace Was an Illusion: The Rise of New Global Rivalries

When the Cold War ended, many believed the world had entered a new era of peace and cooperation. The collapse of the Soviet Union seemed to signal the triumph of democracy and economic liberalism. Leaders envisioned a global order anchored in shared values and integration. Yet, beneath this hopeful veneer, old ambitions and new challenges were brewing.

Russia’s perception of NATO’s expansion eastward as a threat to its security and sphere of influence sowed deep mistrust. The debate over whether Western leaders promised not to expand NATO beyond Germany remains contentious, but the reality of NATO’s presence on Russia’s borders was undeniable and provocative. Putin’s 2007 Munich speech openly challenged US dominance and NATO’s role, signaling a shift towards confrontation.

Meanwhile, China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 was met with widespread optimism that economic integration would lead to political liberalization. However, under leaders like Zhu Rongji, China skillfully balanced opening its economy with maintaining strict political control. State-owned enterprises remained dominant, and censorship tightened, defying Western expectations.

These developments exposed the fragility of the post-Cold War optimism. Economic interdependence did not guarantee peace, and political authoritarianism persisted alongside market reforms. The stage was set for a new era of strategic rivalry, where cooperation and conflict coexist in complex ways.

Understanding this history is critical to grasping the present challenges and the New Cold Wars. It reminds us that assumptions about peace and progress must be continually tested against geopolitical realities. For further reading, works such as Robin Niblett's analysis of US-China competition and David E. Sanger’s detailed accounts provide invaluable perspectives. ^{2 3}