Why We Overestimate Ourselves: The Psychology Behind Denying Luck

Have you ever felt that your success is entirely due to your own talent and hard work? Most people do. Yet, psychological research reveals a widespread tendency to overestimate personal merit and downplay the role of luck. Understanding why this happens can help us develop greater self-awareness and empathy.

One key bias is the Lake Wobegon effect, where most individuals believe they are above average—a statistical impossibility. This self-enhancement bias boosts confidence but clouds judgment. Motivated reasoning further entrenches beliefs that credit effort over chance, preserving motivation but obscuring truth.

Interestingly, studies show that people with depression often have more accurate self-assessments, a phenomenon called depressive realism. This suggests that false optimism is common and may serve adaptive functions like sustaining effort through adversity.

Denial of luck also impacts society by fostering resistance to policies that address inequality or redistribute resources. Recognizing these biases can help individuals and communities embrace humility, improve decision-making, and build more compassionate social systems.

Practical steps include reflecting on past successes and failures, seeking feedback, and consciously acknowledging the role of chance. Such practices cultivate a balanced perspective that honors both effort and fortune.

Sources: Based on psychological studies and contemporary literature on cognitive biases and luck. Additional insights available at SoBrief.com.