How Close Are We to Superintelligence? The Surprising Paths AI Could Take

When we think about superintelligence, it's tempting to imagine a single, straightforward path: build a smarter computer, and boom — superintelligence emerges. But the reality is far more nuanced. There are multiple plausible routes, each with its own technological hurdles and timelines.

The first and most discussed path is artificial intelligence built from scratch. These systems would start with modest capabilities, then improve themselves recursively, potentially triggering an intelligence explosion. This approach requires breakthroughs in machine learning, reasoning, and self-modification.

Another compelling path is whole brain emulation, which involves scanning a human brain at microscopic resolution and simulating its function on a computer. While currently beyond our technical reach, advances in neuroscience, imaging, and computing may make this feasible in the coming decades.

Biological enhancement offers a third route. By leveraging genetics, pharmaceuticals, and brain-computer interfaces, humans might boost their own intelligence significantly. For example, iterated embryo selection could accelerate the gradual improvement of cognitive traits.

Finally, the power of networks and organizations should not be underestimated. Collective intelligence, enhanced by communication technologies and organizational innovations, could rival or exceed individual human intellect.

Each path has distinct advantages and risks. Artificial intelligence offers rapid scaling but poses alignment challenges. Brain emulation is biologically grounded but technologically demanding. Biological enhancement is gradual but limited by ethical and practical constraints. Networks offer robustness but face coordination hurdles.

Understanding these diverse paths helps us prepare for a future where superintelligence could arrive in many forms, shaping the world in profound ways.