The Roundabout Way to Wealth: Why Patience Beats Prediction in Investing

Slow and Steady Wins the Race—Here’s Why

It’s tempting to believe that the smartest investors are those who can predict the next market move. But Mark Spitznagel’s ‘The Dao of Capital’ offers a radical alternative: the most successful investors are those who stop trying to predict, and instead master the art of patience.

Spitznagel draws on Austrian economics to show that markets are living processes—always in motion, never truly at rest. This means that prediction is not only difficult, but often impossible. The real edge comes from adapting to the market’s flow, setting up positional advantages, and waiting for the rare moments when conditions are right.

Psychology backs this up. Studies on delayed gratification show that those who can wait—who resist the urge for immediate rewards—achieve more in the long run. In investing, this means resisting the temptation to chase hot trends, and instead focusing on fundamentals, value, and setup.

History is full of examples: Warren Buffett’s patient value investing, Spitznagel’s own crisis-era gains, and countless others who have thrived by taking the roundabout path. The lesson is clear: in markets, as in life, patience is not just a virtue—it’s a strategy. [[1]](#__1) [[3]](#__3)