Competing Against Luck: The Story of Innovation and Customer Choice

In the world of innovation, many companies struggle with unpredictability and repeated failures. But what if the secret to success lies not in the product itself but in the job the customer wants to get done? Customers don’t simply buy products; they 'hire' them to make progress in their lives under specific circumstances. Understanding this fundamental insight transforms how we approach innovation. Consider the curious case of a fast-food chain’s milkshake sales. Initially, the company tried to improve its milkshakes by tweaking features based on customer feedback — making them cheaper, thicker, or sweeter. Yet, sales remained flat. The breakthrough came when the team realized that customers hired milkshakes for different 'jobs' depending on the time of day. Morning buyers were commuters seeking something to keep them occupied during a long, boring drive. The milkshake’s thickness and the time it took to consume it made it perfect for this job. Afternoon buyers, often parents, hired the milkshake for an entirely different job — as a treat to connect with their children. This insight revealed that a product’s success depends on precisely understanding the customer’s job and context, not just improving product features.

Moreover, this theory explains why traditional data analysis often fails to predict innovation success. Companies collect vast amounts of data, but these data sets mostly show correlations, such as customer demographics or preferences, without revealing the causality behind choices. For example, knowing that a customer is tall or lives in a certain ZIP code doesn’t explain why they choose one product over another. To innovate predictably, companies must understand the causal mechanism — the job the customer is trying to get done.

This shift in perspective moves innovation from a game of chance to a science rooted in understanding human progress. It encourages innovators to ask, 'What job is the customer hiring this product to do?' rather than 'How can we make a better product?' This subtle but profound change leads to solutions that customers truly value and are willing to pay for. As we embark on this journey through the Theory of Jobs to Be Done, keep in mind that the key to competing against luck is to focus on the job, not just the product.

As we move forward, we will explore how this theory applies in practice and how it reshapes the way organizations innovate and grow.