Losing Earth

Imagine a time when the world was just beginning to awaken to a hidden truth, a truth that would come to shape the fate of our planet. In the late 1970s, the scientific community had already pieced together the fundamental puzzle of global warming. The core idea was elegantly simple: carbon dioxide, a gas we release by burning coal, oil, and gas, traps heat around the Earth, much like a greenhouse traps warmth for plants. This concept, known as the greenhouse effect, was first discovered over a century earlier, but it was only in this era that scientists began to fully understand its implications for the entire planet.

Nearly everything we understand about global warming was understood in 1979. The Charney report, a landmark scientific assessment, brought together the best climate models of the time, predicting that if atmospheric carbon dioxide doubled from pre-industrial levels, the Earth would warm by between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius. This range was not just a number; it was a warning of profound changes ahead—melting ice caps, rising seas, shifting weather patterns, and threats to agriculture that could disrupt societies worldwide.

Yet, despite the clarity of the science, the world remained largely unaware. The Keeling Curve, a jagged graph charting rising CO2 levels from a remote Hawaiian observatory, silently told a story of accelerating change. Scientists warned that the doubling point was inevitable within decades, but the urgency of this knowledge had yet to penetrate public consciousness or political agendas.

Among those who grasped the gravity of the moment was a young atmospheric physicist who developed advanced computer models—Mirror Worlds—that could simulate Earth's climate and forecast its future. These models revealed not just gradual warming but potential tipping points where the planet’s systems might spiral into chaos. The science was robust, the predictions alarming, yet the world stood on the cusp of decision, with time slipping away.

The basic science was not especially complicated. It could be reduced to a simple axiom: the more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the warmer the planet. This section of our journey reveals the roots of climate science, the foundation upon which all subsequent knowledge stands. It is a story of discovery, of insight, and of warnings that echoed through the halls of government and research institutions.

As we move forward, we will see how this knowledge collided with politics, industry interests, and human psychology, shaping the path of climate action and inaction. The next chapter takes us into the realm of politics and policy, where the stakes became as high as the science was clear.