Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century

As we embark on this journey through a pivotal era in international relations, it is essential to understand the chaotic dawn of the US-China relationship under the Trump administration. One of the earliest and most telling moments came when a senior Chinese diplomat, Yang Jiechi, sat down with the fledgling American transition team in a high-rise office in New York City. Yang’s approach was direct and unyielding. He repeated the phrase 'The territorial integrity and sovereignty of the People’s Republic of China is not to be questioned' twice in succession, underscoring the gravity with which China viewed its core interests. This meeting was not just a diplomatic formality but a stern lecture from an experienced statesman to a group largely unprepared for the complexities ahead.

Adding to the turbulence, just a week before Yang’s visit, the then president-elect Donald Trump accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen. This call broke a four-decade diplomatic precedent and sent shockwaves through Washington and Beijing alike, signaling a rocky start to what would become a fraught bilateral relationship. The media quickly labeled the call either a reckless provocation or a sign of Trump’s naivety, but the truth was more complex. Some insiders suggest the call was an inadvertent oversight, while others argue it was a calculated move by certain factions within the transition team.

Simultaneously, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was in Beijing, delivering a message of cautious optimism and cooperation on behalf of the incoming administration. The stark contrast between Kissinger’s conciliatory tone and Trump’s provocative Taiwan call left Chinese leaders bewildered, wondering who truly controlled American China policy. This duality reflected the broader confusion within the US government, where no single individual or cohesive strategy dominated the approach to China. Instead, a patchwork of competing factions jockeyed for influence, each pushing its own agenda.

Within this chaotic environment, the Chinese government maintained a firm stance on its territorial claims and strategic initiatives, including the Belt and Road Initiative, which it expected the new US administration to publicly support. Yet, the Americans were sending mixed signals—some officials advocating confrontation, others favoring engagement. This lack of clarity set the tone for the turbulent years to come.

As we move forward, this initial chaos will give way to the formation of distinct factions within the Trump administration, each vying to shape the future of US-China relations. Understanding this foundation is crucial to grasping the complex interplay of personalities, policies, and events that define this era.