The Art of Thinking Clearly

Imagine walking through a quiet graveyard at dawn, the mist curling softly around ancient stones. Each tombstone tells a story, but most remain silent and forgotten. This graveyard is not just a place of rest but a metaphor for the countless failures that never reach the spotlight. In our daily lives, we are surrounded by stories of success—rock stars, entrepreneurs, bestselling authors—yet behind each shining example lies a vast unseen mass of those who tried and failed. This is the essence of survivorship bias, a mental trap where we focus only on the survivors, ignoring the invisible graveyard of failures.

Consider Rick, a young musician inspired by the stars he sees everywhere. Motivated by their success, he starts a band, unaware that the odds are overwhelmingly against him. For every star on stage, thousands of musicians remain unheard, their dreams buried in obscurity. Yet the media never tells their stories, making the cemetery invisible to us. This selective visibility inflates our perception of success and blinds us to the true risks.

Survivorship bias extends beyond music. Investors often fall prey to it, dazzled by stories of startups that became the next Google, while ignoring the vast majority that fail to launch or go bankrupt within years. Even stock market indices like the Dow Jones represent only survivors, excluding failed and small businesses. Relying on such indices as indicators of economic health is like judging a forest by only the tallest trees.

To guard against this bias, we must actively seek out the stories of failure and loss. Walking the graveyard of unsuccessful ventures clears our minds and tempers our optimism with reality. It reminds us that success is rare, often unpredictable, and that traits shared by winners are not guarantees but mere coincidences. Only by acknowledging the full spectrum of outcomes can we make wiser decisions and avoid costly mistakes.

As we leave this somber reflection behind, we prepare to explore another illusion that shapes our thinking: the swimmer’s body illusion, where cause and effect become tangled in the pursuit of success and beauty.