Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization

In the unfolding story of modern conflict, we stand at the threshold of a new era where the traditional roles of power are being redefined. Imagine a world where a small, agile group armed with nothing more than off-the-shelf technology can challenge the might of a nation-state. This is not the stuff of fiction but the reality that has emerged in the last two decades. Technology, once the exclusive domain of governments, has now become a tool wielded by individuals and small groups with devastating effect. Consider the exponential growth governed by Moore's Law, where the power of computers doubles every eighteen months, making advanced capabilities accessible to many. This democratization of technology means that the barriers to entry for conducting significant disruptions have plummeted.

Take, for example, the sabotage of an oil pipeline in Iraq that cost a mere $2,000 to execute but resulted in over $500 million in lost revenue. This staggering return on investment illustrates the asymmetric nature of the new warfare landscape. The economic damage inflicted ripples far beyond the immediate site, shaking the foundations of state legitimacy and governance. Such attacks are not isolated incidents but part of a growing trend where superempowered groups leverage technology, globalization, and networks to wage a form of warfare that traditional military forces struggle to counter.

These groups operate without the need for centralized command, instead functioning as decentralized networks that adapt and innovate rapidly. Their agility and the global reach afforded by modern communications allow them to strike at the vulnerabilities of highly interconnected societies. The very systems that provide nations with strength—complex infrastructure, global supply chains, and open societies—become their Achilles' heel.

As we embark on this journey through the changing face of war, it is crucial to understand that the battlefield is no longer confined to physical terrain but extends into the realms of economics, information, and social cohesion. The superempowered competition challenges us to rethink security, strategy, and resilience in ways that embrace complexity and uncertainty. This first insight sets the stage for exploring how these global guerrillas operate, disrupt, and redefine conflict in the sections to come.