Revenge of the Tipping Point

Imagine a city gripped by a sudden fever — a contagious wave of bank robberies sweeping through its streets like wildfire. In the early 1990s, Los Angeles experienced just such an epidemic. It wasn’t a random outbreak of crime but a social contagion, fueled by a handful of superspreaders who repeatedly hit banks with astonishing frequency. One man, known only by his New York Yankees baseball cap, robbed six banks in a single day — a record that still stands. This was not just brazen; it was unprecedented.

Such social epidemics reveal how a small number of individuals, through their actions and networks, can ignite widespread change or chaos. Casper and C-Dog, two masterminds from the Crips gang, revolutionized the game by organizing teams to rob banks, outsourcing the labor while they managed the operations. This shift transformed isolated crimes into a coordinated epidemic, overwhelming law enforcement and reshaping the city’s social fabric.

The rise of bank robberies in Los Angeles was no accident. Between the 1970s and 1990s, the number of bank branches tripled, providing abundant targets. But more than that, the social context — the networks, the culture, the opportunity — created fertile ground for contagion. The epidemic was localized; New York, despite having legendary robbers decades earlier, never saw such a surge. This localization points to the powerful role of place and social environment in shaping epidemics.

As the FBI struggled to keep pace with dozens of robberies daily, the city’s law enforcement was stretched thin, unable to stem the tide. The epidemic eventually waned only after key superspreaders were arrested, proving again the outsized influence of a few in driving social phenomena.

This story teaches us that social epidemics are not wild and uncontrollable; they are shaped by individuals acting within specific contexts. Understanding these dynamics is vital to grasping how ideas, behaviors, and crises spread through society.

Recognizing the role of superspreaders and the environment they operate in allows us to anticipate and potentially intervene in social epidemics.

As we move forward, we will explore another epidemic — one rooted not in crime but in a complex web of fraud and corruption, shaped by the unique culture of a city where the rules themselves seem to bend. This will deepen our understanding of how overstories — the broad narratives and environments — shape epidemics in ways both subtle and profound.