The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy

Imagine history not as a straight, endless line marching toward progress, but as a great wheel turning through time, its spokes marked by the lives of those who have come before us. History pulses with the rhythm of the human lifespan, a cycle known as the saeculum, roughly eighty to one hundred years long. This concept, born in the ancient world among the Etruscans, invites us to see the past and future as seasons of growth, maturity, decay, and renewal, much like the natural cycles of spring, summer, autumn, and winter.

In this view, time is not chaotic or random, nor is it a relentless march forward. Instead, it is a dance of recurring patterns, each era shaped by the generations who live through it. The Etruscans measured history by the lifespan of their longest-living citizens, creating a natural unit of historical time that echoes through the ages. The Romans adopted and expanded this idea, linking great events and societal changes to these cycles.

For us today, this means that the moods, values, and challenges of society are not new inventions but reflections of a deeper, natural order. The cycles of history, like the seasons, bring times of collective optimism and institution-building, followed by eras of spiritual questioning and upheaval, then periods of fragmentation and individualism, and finally moments of crisis that reshape the social order.

Consider how the seasons of nature are inevitable and necessary. We do not fight winter; we prepare for it. Similarly, history's cycles must be recognized and understood so that we may meet their challenges with wisdom and courage. By embracing the cyclical nature of time, we can find hope in the certainty of renewal, even after the darkest winters.

As we journey forward, we will explore how these cycles manifest through generations, shaping not only the course of nations but the very fabric of our lives. Let us now turn to the human life cycle, the foundation upon which these historical rhythms are built.